By P.K.Balachandran
Colombo, December 15: With the brash and unpredictable Donald Trump about to be President of the United States, there is anxiety in India about his domestic, foreign and trade policies.
Trump’s penchant for transactional relationships could mean that India cannot take America for granted or expect help from it without any thought of returning the favour. American scholar Ashely Tellis and Ambassador Eric Garcetti have complained that India has been taking from America but giving virtually nothing that America expects.
There is anxiety about Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) thrust. Questions that arise are: Does MAGA mean a pushy and aggressive pursuit of American interests at the cost of allies and strategic partners? Would Trump accept India’s claim to be a power in its own right, entitled to be treated on par with America’s traditional Western allies? Would he allow India to pursue strategic autonomy in its national interest often times running counter to American policies and interests?
While these are of vital concern for India, the Indian Establishment is smug. Reflecting the current buoyant mood in India after having become the world’s fifth largest economy by nominal GDP, External Affairs Minister S.Jaishankar declared that while other countries may have problems with Trump’s re-emergence, India has none.
But the reality is that there are multiple issues bedevilling India-US relations. Some of these may get mitigated while others could get exacerbated by Trump’s coming back.
Downside
There is the sticky question of work visas for Indian students. Indian and US tariff issues may crop up. In the past Trump has used tariff has a weapon against China. Illegal immigration from India is an embarrassment.
Then there is India’s quest for leeway in foreign policy matters, especially in relation to Russia, China and the South Asian neighbourhood. India expects the US to accept its primacy in its neighbourhood (barring Pakistan).
In the 1980s, India took exception to America’s cultivating the right wing government in Sri Lanka headed by President J.R.Jayewardene. It encouraged the minority Tamils to put up their demands militantly which led to a 30-year war from which the island nation is yet to recover.
More recently, India suspected that the US was behind the overthrow of the India-friendly Sheikh Hasina regime in Bangladesh. Indians described the August 5 Bangladesh revolution as a “colour revolution” engineered by the US to nullify India’s influence over Bangladesh. India unofficially dubbed the head of the Interim Administration Dr. Muhammad Yunus as a US plant.
India also expects the US, no matter who is President, to avoid interfering in its internal affairs and eschew commenting on issues which it deems internal. It is particularly sensitive about comments on human rights violations, curbs on democratic rights and the treatment of Muslims and other minorities.
But being the oldest and the most powerful democracy, the US has institutionalised its watchdog role in the world. Since the end of World War II, it has been describing itself as the leader of the Free World. This irks resurgent India under Modi. Therefore, every time the US State Department or any of the specialised commissions criticises India in its reports, a raw nerve is touched in the Indian Establishment. In angry retort , the US is promptly asked to mind its business.
Friction between America’s global democratic mission and India’s sensitivity and its new found pride will continue to be a feature of Indo-US relations.
However, there is an equally popular view that Trump is not committed to human rights like the wokes in the Democratic Party, and that he will turn a blind eye to human rights violations in India. However, this cannot be taken for granted. There are certain enduring features of the American Establishment such as the yearly human rights reports which cannot be stopped. It is these reports which validate America’s time-honoured claim to be a torch bearer of democracy.
Trump may not act on these reports or order sanctions, but he could use them to embarrass a recalcitrant foreign government. He did this in October when he used the plight of the Hindus in Bangladesh to indicate his support of the Hindus and India.
Since winning the Presidential election, charges against Trump about attempting to overturn a previous Presidential election and illegally retaining classified documents at his estate have been dismissed, though two other cases remain.
This gives hope to the Indian Establishment that the US$ 265 million bribery charge against Indian billionaire Gautam Adani deemed to be close to Modi, and the case against Indian intelligence agents in a plot to murder American citizen Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in New York, will also be dropped because of Trump’s bonhomie with Modi. Trump had described Modi as “great” and a “friend”.
Indians expect Trump’s transactional approach to give India and other countries a chance to negotiate their way out of sticky situations such as the Adani and Pannun cases. Adani has already offered to invest US$ 10 billion in the US to create local jobs, a cause dear to Trump. It is sad that the case relating to Pannun could be dropped if India conducts a credible inquiry and “punishes the guilty”.
India is counting on Trump to counter George Soros, the American billionaire and gladiator for democracy the world over. Trump too hates Soros. The Modi government accuses Soros of funding the opposition Congress party to whip up mass opposition against it and topple it. Trump had also accused Soros of trying to fix him by supporting the Democrats who were investigating his conduct after he was defeated by Joe Biden.
India would be hoping that Trump curbs the activities of Soros through investigations into the America’s Deep State.
Russia, China policies
Indians welcome Trump’s policy on Russia and his resolve to solve the Ukraine issue, because India can then continue to buy Russian oil at a concessional rate.
Trump’s China policy is going to be shaped by economic considerations arising from his election pledge to bring back factories to the US to give Americans jobs. For Trump, China’s geopolitical expansion is less of a concern than favourable terms of trade. Trump wants a strong economic relationship with China to balance bilateral trade.
US goods and services trade with China totalled US $758.4 billion in 2022. Exports were U$ 195.5 billion and imports were US$ 562.9 billion.
India’s approach to China is not very different from Trump’s. India’s relations with China may appear to be geopolitical and warlike on the surface but there is an underlying economic content which is preventing an outbreak of war.
Both India and China are keen on continuing the booming bilateral trade. India expects China to opens its market to Indian goods more than it does now and narrow the yawning trade gap. In 2023, India’s trade deficit with China was U$ 83.36 billion.
India has ruled out war with China, though it is strengthening its military with American help. Foreign Minister Jaishankar has said that India cannot go to war with China simply because China’s economy is five times India’s.
However, the downside in Trump’s China policy is that a softer US policy on China could reduce India’s importance for the US and might enable China to be more belligerent on the Sino-Indian border and in the South Asian neighbourhood.
It is reported that Trump intends to invite President Xi Jinping for his inauguration in January. This is certainly not good news for Indian strategic planners. Trump’s meeting with Xi in 2017 had resulted in the US-Chinese Phase One trade deal in 2020. Trump acolyte Elon Musk is a strong advocate of rapprochement with China.
Tougher immigration policies under Trump could affect India if there is a move to restrict or change the terms of high-skilled or student visas—or to go for large-scale deportation of unauthorized Indian migrants. There were an estimated 725,000 illegal Indian immigrants in the US in 2022.
Should Trump attend the Quad summit that is scheduled to take place in India in 2025, Modi will roll out the red carpet for him as it did in 2020. And along with deepening ties with Trump officials or allies, the Indian government will also continue to invest in relationships with other US stakeholders including members of Congress, state and local officials, and companies, an Indian commentator wrote.
Therefore, for India, Trump is a mixed bag of the good and the bad, with the good outweighing the bad for the moment.
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