By PK.Balachandran
Colombo, November 6: Republican party candidate Donald Trump’s decisive victory over Democrat Kamala Harris in the November 5 US Presidential election looks remarkably like Narendra Modi’s sweeping victories in the 2014 and 2019 parliamentary elections in India. Both Trump and Modi won against candidates or parties which were clueless about the mood and aspirations of the people at the grassroots level, while they were clued into them.
In the US, the earlier Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, was aged and infirm. His midstream replacement, Kamala Harris, was younger and fit. She also performed creditably in the debate with Trump. But her campaign lacked clear messages to the voters about her plan to tackle America’s problems, other than Trump’s fascistic predilections.
But fighting fascism was an issue only among a section of the elite, the Left liberals, not the hoi polloi. The common man whether White, Latino, Brown or Black, was facing real life issues like unemployment and illegal immigration. On these, Harris did not have a clear or original line. In foreign policy, there was no indication that the US under Harris would not bumble as it had been bumbling under Biden.
In the case of the Indian leader in 2014, Narendra Modi, he was a beacon of hope for the youth wanting India to come out the psychological rut that it had got into under the 10-year rule of the Congress party. Modi came on to the scene as a gust of fresh air. Though subsequently, his economic performance only enriched the rich, he whipped up Hindu nationalism especially after a terror act just before the 2019 elections. He reaped a good harvest of votes as a result.
In the 2024 elections Modi was mauled, but not eliminated as he was able to remain in power with the help of two allies. In the 2024 elections, the Congress had exploited some of the grievances of the people, but it had not cultivated the Hindu constituency, the biggest in the country. The Congress’ support base was widespread but it had no large core constituency.
In the US, Trump had popular issues to exploit other than the broader issue of the Biden Administration’s lacklustre performance both at home and abroad. Biden’s effort to restore peace in the Middle East was insincere and ineffective. So were its efforts to help Ukraine stop the Russian war machine. Sanctions against Russia and Iran had failed to deliver results. In Asia, China could not be contained. And on top of all that, Democratic candidate Harris did not have a fresh approach to any of these issues.
Trump’s campaign rode on the resentment of disenchanted voters. It capitalized on the cultural fractures and tribal politics that Trump has long exploited, TIME magazine wrote after Trump’s victory.
His support base, which was thought to be confined to the White poor majority, had expanded to included Latinos despite his threats of mass detention and deportation of migrants. Erika Lee in her book “America for Americans,” argues that Trump’s immigration policies and statements are part of a long tradition of xenophobia-against Southern Europeans, against newcomers from Asia, Latin America and the Middle East-a tradition that has lived alongside America’s self-perception as a nation of immigrants.
The Whites were not put off with Trump’s threat to unleash revenge against political enemies through the justice system or to use the military against US citizens.
Surveys showed that men, particularly young men, were turning away from Biden the most, especially over the economy. They appreciated Trump’s brashness and habit of smashing norms, TIME said. Trump’s announcement of 39-year-old Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate helped counter Harris on the age issue.
The female vote was posing a challenge because of his no abortion policy. Finally, on October1, he issued a statement that he would not have a federal policy on abortion but leave the matter to the States. This helped him get female votes.
TIME pointed out that in the final weeks of the campaign, billionaire Elon Musk poured more than US$ 100 million to help Trump in swing states. “Musk hired staffers and incentivized them with pay outs to reach voters. He personally camped out in Pennsylvania, seen by both sides as the pivotal battleground state, and handed out US$ 1 million checks in sweepstakes for registered voters who signed a petition.”
In the election’s final weeks, Musk used Far-Right’s conspiracy theory that Democrats were “importing” undocumented immigrants to swing states to irrevocably tilt the electoral map in their favour, TIME pointed out. “If Trump doesn’t win,” Musk warned, “this is the last election.”
Trump told TIME that he plans to use executive power to begin mass deportations of undocumented migrants. There will be a massive purge of the federal bureaucracy to weed out elements opposed to him using his control over the judiciary, the magazine further said.
According to Al Jazeera, Trump will revive his “America First” foreign policy, indicating a turn towards isolationism and less international collaboration. But he will continue to be pro-Israel. While in office, Trump had moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in a move that was widely denounced. He also recognised Israel’s claim to the occupied Golan Heights in Syria.
But he did some good too. He brokered the “Abraham Accords” between Israel and the Arab States.
When he was President earlier, he unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 agreement that saw Iran scale back its nuclear programme in exchange for a lifting of international sanctions against it. He heaped crippling sanctions on Iran and authorised the assassination of top Iranian General Qassem Soleimani.
Trump wants to stop the war in Ukraine but he may not negotiate a settlement but could stop funding NATO which will impact on Ukraine’s ability to fight Russia. Trump has said that he will withdraw from NATO because its European members are not contributing enough.
Trump places the US’s economic relationship with China above other issues, such as human rights. He may go for a trade and tariff war with China as he did in 2018. He slapped tariffs on more than US$250 billion on Chinese imports. Nevertheless, Trump has expressed an affinity for China’s strongman leader, President Xi Jinping as he said about Russia’s Putin and India’s Modi.
Trump may also put stiff tariff barriers on imports from India, if India continues its protectionist policies. Likewise, he may not let India off the hook in the case of the attempted assassination of an American citizen of Indian origin, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, allegedly by India’s agents. It is a question of America’s sovereignty. The case is in a New York court.
Although Trump seemed to be sympathetic to the Hindus’ plight in Bangladesh, he is unlikely to please India on strategic and economic issues just as a matter of goodwill. Trump is quintessentially a transactional politician. For every favour he does to India, he would expect a reciprocal gesture. There will be no free lunches under his watch. When he was President earlier Trump had offered to mediate between India and Pakistan to solve Kashmir issue.This gave joy to Pakistanis but there was consternation in India. Trump quietly dropped the matter to keep his friendship with Modi. Friendship with Modi still continues but his actions may not reflect it as America’s interest is foremost in his mind always.
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