Sept 7 (USA Today) – Allan Lichtman, the historian who correctly predicted the outcome of 9 out of the 10 most recent presidential elections, has made his guess on who will reclaim the White House this year.
Spoiler alert: it’s Vice President Kamala Harris.
Lichtman said in a video, first reported by The New York Times, that he based his prediction on thirteen keys or “big picture true-false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House Party.”
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Who is Allan Lichtman?
Before receiving the title of “Distinguished Professor” from the American University in Washington, D.C., Lichtman earned a Ph.D. specializing in modern American history and quantitative methods at Harvard.
In addition to lecturing in the U.S. and around the world, Lichtman is the author of 13 books and hundreds of academic articles. He has also been an expert witness in civil and voting rights cases.
He routinely provides political commentary and is best known for his election forecasting.
What are the 13 keys?
The keys include whether:
◾ The White House party gained House seats during the midterm elections.
◾ The sitting president is running for reelection.
◾ The White House party is avoiding a primary contest.
◾ There is a third-party challenger.
◾ The short-term economy is strong.
◾ The long-term economic growth has been as good as the last two terms.
◾ The White House party has made major changes to national policy.
◾ There is sustained social unrest during the term.
◾ The White House is untainted by scandal, the incumbent party is charismatic.
◾ The challenger is uncharismatic.
◾ The incumbent is charismatic.
◾ The White House party has a major failure in foreign policy.
◾ The White House party has foreign policy success.
Eight of the keys are in favor of Harris, while three are in favor of Trump.
“Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip,” he said in the video. “The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House.”
That leaves Harris winning the White House, he said. “At least that’s my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote.”
Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the last half-century, except for the race in 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.
