P.K.Balachandran
Colombo, November 14: At the COP29 summit held in Baku, Azerbaijan on November 13, a grim picture of the effects of climate change emerged. As the delegates shared their thoughts, scientists said that despite all the talk about mitigating climate change, another bump upward had occurred in greenhouse gas emissions.
Euro News said that in 2024, the world is on track to put 37.4 billion metric tonnes of the main heat-trapping gas into the atmosphere. It’s a 0.8% increase from 2023. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most abundant and prevalent “greenhouse gas” emitted by human activity.
While carbon dioxide is essential for keeping the Earth’s surface temperature above freezing, more of it intensifies the “greenhouse effect” which is a rise in global temperatures. Once emitted, carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for thousands of years, with 40% remaining after 100 years.
Methane is another powerful but shorter-lasting greenhouse gas. Methane is the main component of natural gas. In the first two decades after it’s released, methane is more than 80 times more effective at warming the climate system than carbon dioxide.
In 2023, both carbon dioxide and methane levels in the atmosphere reached record highs. The global concentration of carbon dioxide rose to an average of 419 parts per million in the atmosphere and Methane rose to an average of 1922 parts per billion.
UN reports say the globe must cut emissions by 42% by 2030 to be in with a chance of limiting warming to the internationally agreed-upon threshold of 1.5 Celsius or the limit agreed to at the 2015 climate talks in Paris.
Marginal Gains
This year’s pollution increase isn’t quite as large as last year’s 1.4% jump, scientists said while presenting the data at the UN climate talks in Azerbaijan (COP29). There is still no sign that the world has reached a peak in fossil fuel CO2 emissions. The world still has six years before passing 1.5 Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The Earth is already at 1.3 degrees Celsius, according a United Nations study. Therefore, countries are clearly not doing enough on a global scale to reduce emissions, said Mike O’Sullivan, a University of Exeter climate scientist.
“We need to massively increase ambition and actually just think outside the box of how we can change things, not be so tied to fossil fuel interests,” he urged.
Biggest Carbon Emitters
According to the Global Carbon Project team, the four biggest carbon emitters are China, the United States, India and Europe. China is the world’s biggest annual carbon polluting nation with 32% of the emissions. India accounts for 7%. India’s carbon pollution jumped by 4.6% in 2024. The US was responsible for 13% globe’s carbon dioxide in 2024. Europe accounted for 7% of the world’s carbon pollution
However, China’s emission could drop to zero in the next two months and is “basically flat,” O’Sullivan said. Carbon emissions dropped in both the United States and the European Union. They fell 0.6% in the US mostly from reduced coal, oil and cement use. . Europe saw its carbon dioxide output drop 3.8% from last year – driven by a big cut in coal emissions.
Urgency in Maldives
One of the most threatened by climate change is Maldives. It is also the world’s lowest lying country. The highest natural point is just 2.4 meters above sea level. Today, one of the main problems for Maldivians is water. And it is likely to get worse with climate change.
While the Northern islands face drinking water shortages during the dry season, from April to May, most Southern islands face a different problem: flooding.
The UNDP is supporting Maldives, to ensure that most vulnerable islands have year-round access to potable water and that they can cope with floods on their own.
Nearly half of its population lives in Male, the capital, which is less than 1.4 sq,km. The rest is spread over 186 small, scattered islands. There are no rivers or streams on any of the islands. Except for Malé and a handful of other islands, most islands rely on rain for drinking water. Islands affected by floods and shortages of potable water receive relief from the capital island Malé. Transportation costs are high with the Maldives scattered geography.
This makes emergency relief very expensive for a government already struggling economically. The danger is that climate change is expected to bring stronger storms, and longer periods without rainfall. A rise in the ocean’s temperature and acidification has had devastating effects on coral reefs, affecting tourism and fisheries, both critical to the livelihoods of most Maldivians.
Damaged reefs also function less effectively as a first line of defence against sea swells and flooding. Until the 1990s, Maldivians used groundwater for drinking. But over the past decade, the groundwater of most islands got contaminated. The freshwater lenses of most islands was badly affected by the Tsunami of 2004 and poorly planned urbanization.
As a result, today, rainwater, together with water produced using desalination and expensive bottled water are the only potable water options. In the past ten years, the National Disasters Management Center in Malé had to send emergency shipments of water to about half of the 186 inhabited islands during the dry season. An expensive solution that sometimes can take up to two weeks to arrive. Most households have one tank of 2500L and fill it by collecting rain from their roofs. Bigger families might even have 2 or 3 tanks, since one is not enough for them to make it through the dry season.
Biosphere Reserve
UNESCO has designated certain areas as biosphere reserves. This designation sets up a “learning place for sustainable development,” a site for testing approaches on how to sustainably manage natural systems that conserve biodiversity and manage and mitigate climate change impacts on local economies.
In 2011, UNESCO designated Baa Atoll, in central-western Maldives, as a biosphere reserve. Comprising 75 islands inhabited by 12,000 people dependent on tourism and fisheries, it supports one of the largest groups of coral reefs in the Indian Ocean, which act as a conduit for the transport of “plankton” necessary for biodiversity to thrive and to reduce the effect of waves and storm surges. Plankton are tiny organisms that float in water and are carried by tides and currents. Plankton are important for the health of the ocean and play a big role in the marine food chain.
Since this designation as biosphere, Baa Atoll’s sustainable ecotourism tourism industry has bloomed, hosting more than 350,000 tourists annually pre-COVID.
USAID helped assess ecologically sensitive areas and the recovery potential of coral reef ecosystems. To improve climate resilience, USAID supported government efforts to develop a management plan for one of the largest and biologically diverse marine-protected areas in Maldives.
Maldives’ Suggestions at COP29
At the Leaders’ Summit of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) on Climate Change, held at Baku in Azerbaijan on November 13, the Maldivian President Dr. Mohamed Muizzu emphasized that the current financial system does not provide SIDS with the necessary resources to address climate impacts, rendering their ambitious climate goals difficult to achieve.
He outlined three major issues for action to reshape the global financial architecture to better support SIDS. Addressing climate change requires a coordinated support from various key players—including the UN, multilateral development banks, international financial institutions, and the private sector.
The Maldivian President said that traditional lending and debt models need rethinking. He proposed the concept of linking “debt forgiveness to the achievement of specific climate resilience milestones.” For example, a SIDS might see a portion of its debt forgiven if it reaches certain adaptation or emissions-reduction targets.
This approach could provide immediate financial relief and an incentive for SIDS to pursue climate goals, especially since high debt levels often prevent these nations from making necessary investments in resilience, Dr. Muizzu said.
He also called for a redefinition of creditworthiness, where a nation’s climate resilience efforts factor positively into its ability to secure funding, rather than relying solely on traditional economic indicators.
Dr. Muizzu urged COP29 to establish a new, more realistic climate finance goal that reflects the actual needs of SIDS. Current climate finance mechanisms often fall short in addressing the scale of funding required by SIDS to adapt to and mitigate climate change effects, he pointed out.
He sought discussions on establishing a “comprehensive international carbon market mechanism”, a platform that could allow countries to trade emissions reductions or offsets.
“Such a system, if well designed, could generate additional financial resources for SIDS and provide a new revenue stream for climate adaptation and mitigation efforts,” Dr.Muizzu said.
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