By P.K.Balachandran/Daily News
Colombo, November 5:: In the post-World War II era, relations between the US and South Asian countries have been both close and growing as the US had replaced Britain as the dominant power in the region. Therefore, an American Presidential election is of critical importance to India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Nepal and the Maldives.
According to International Relations (IR) experts interviewed by the US journal Foreign Policy in October, Washington’s policy vis-à-vis South Asia will be one of “continuity” whether it is Donald Trump or Kamala Harris who wins.
India
As India is the pivot of US policy on South Asia, Washington will look towards further defence tie ups with India and work with it to counter China in the Indian Ocean.
Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Centre’s South Asia Institute, told the Turkish news agency, Anadolu that in the US, there is a strong bipartisan support for close ties with India. Therefore, whether it is a Trump or a Harris Administration, there will be continuity in the India policy. The US has differences with India over Russia and China, but still, India and US will cooperate, Kugelman stressed.
However, it is undeniable that, right now, India-US relations are at a low ebb, to say the least. To India’s discomfiture, the US joined Canada in charging that its intelligence agency was plotting to kill Indian dissidents in North America. The US said that an American Sikh separatist, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, had been a target of India-handled assassins. The Pannun case is in court and an Indian agent allegedly involved in the plot was extradited from the Czech Republic and brought to the US for trial.
Canada went to the extent of naming Indian Home Minister Amit Shah and the National Security Advisor of India Ajit Doval as persons behind the alleged assassination plots. India stoutly denied any involvement. But it is in talks with the US at the National Security Advisors’ level to find a way out of the logjam.
Despite that Kugelman said both Harris and Trump would not let it go. “They would pressure India to carry out an investigation.”
Though India and US are strategic partners vis-à-vis China, they have divergent interests. India is now seeking a détente with China on the border issue and also more Chinese investments. This should worry both Trump and Harris.
India’s relations with Russia, however, is a different kettle of fish. Trump is suspected to be in cahoots with Putin but Harris is resolutely opposed to Putin. Trump is strongly supportive of commercial ties with India, but at the same time, he is highly critical of India’s high tariffs.
Be that as it may, India and the US have too much at stake in the relations to allow ties to be hampered. The arms trade between India and the US has touched USD 25 billion. In 2023, US investments in India were valued at approximately USD 49.6 billion and Indian investment in the US amounted to USD 4.6 billion. Millions of Indians live in the US.
Pakistan
No matter who is in White House, Pakistan will not be a priority, is the dim view of Kamran Yousaf of Express Tribune. The US abandoned Pakistan, its ally in the Afghan war, after it walked out of Afghanistan in 2021. The Afghan war thrust two million Afghan refugees on Pakistan but the US walked out without helping Pakistan cope with them.
On top of it, Trump accused Pakistan of playing a double game taking American money to fight the Taliban while supporting the Taliban clandestinely. He blocked military aid to Pakistan.
However, Pakistan’s geographical location makes it important to the US. To keep Pakistan from turning totally hostile, the US has turned a blind eye to the Beijing-funded multi-billion dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Bangladesh
President Joe Biden put US-Bangladesh relations on an even keel after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina who had clashed with the US on human rights and other matters such as her refusal to join the anti-China QUAD.
The student movement, which ousted Hasina, had the backing of the US. The present Chief Advisor to the interim government Prof. Muhammad Yunus is sad to be the joint choice of the US, the agitating students and Bangladeshi civil society. The US has been a strong supporter of civil liberties in Bangladesh, even sanctioning some of the top men in Hasina’s security establishment. Human rights issues cement ties between the Yunus regime and Washington.
While it is clear that Kamala Harris will follow Biden’s footsteps vis-à-vis Bangladesh, Trump has taken a pro-Hasina stand apparently with an eye on the influential Indian-American voters in the US.
Greeting American Hindus on Deepavali day, Trump said on X: “ I strongly condemn the barbaric violence against Hindus, Christians, and other minorities who are getting attacked and looted by mobs in Bangladesh, which remains in a total state of chaos. It would have never happened on my watch. Kamala and Joe have ignored Hindus across the world and in America.”
“Under my administration, we will also strengthen our great partnership with India and my good friend, Prime Minister Modi.”
Trump could well have made these pro-Modi or pro-Hindu noises only to get the votes of the Hindu-dominated Indian American community. Given the presence of US protégé Muhammad Yunus at the helm in Dhaka, Trump is more likely to strengthen US ties with Bangladesh than weaken them.
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka’s relations with the US are unlikely to be different from the past, though the newly elected National Peoples’ Power (NPP) government portrays itself as radical leftist. The NPP leader and President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, has indicated that he can play ball with capitalism and the US-led West.
Moreover, Colombo has not said or done anything which would suggest a pro-China tilt. These factors should pave the way for a smooth relationship with the US.
However, the US has a long-standing and deep interest in drafting Sri Lanka into its anti-China maritime security architecture, the QUAD. But Sri Lankan governments have dreaded involvement in QUAD. No Sri Lankan government has wanted the island to become a battle ground for regional or world rivals.
Nevertheless, the US, whether under Trump or Harris, will press Sri Lanka to sign agreements on defence and security cooperation, even those Sri Lanka had traditionally baulked at such as the Status of Forces Agreement(SOFA) which is a bilateral (or multilateral) agreement that outlines the legal status of US military personnel, their dependents, and their assets in a foreign country. SOFA also establishes rights and responsibilities between the US and the host country.
The US will also raise human and minority rights, irrespective of the occupant at the Wight House. Although Trump could be expected to be less human rights-oriented than Harris, he might not be able to disentangle himself from a legacy issue like human rights entirely.
In fact he hasn’t.This is indicated in his message to American Hindus voters in which he sharply criticized the way Hindus were being attacked in post-Hasina Bangladesh. He declared that under his watch, that would not have happened.
Afghanistan and Nepal
The Taliban-ruled Afghanistan would probably like to have Trump as President. As US President earlier, Trump had pulled out US troops from Afghanistan.
Nepal is ruled by a coalition between the pro-China Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) and the pro-India Nepali Congress party. Nepal and China had signed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) framework agreement in May 2017.
But Nepal has been expressing serious reservations about the text of the BRI. Nepal has said that it is not interested in commercial loans but only investments. Talks over the BRI projects and an implementation plan remain suspended.
Nepal has strong ties with the US. Nepal signed the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) agreement to get US$ 500 million for development projects in 2017. The compact was ratified by Nepal’s Federal Parliament in 2022.
Maldives
US relations with Maldives is expected to be smooth as the Mohamed Muizzu government has completely given up its pro-China and anti-Indian character and is now heavily dependent on India financially.
China appears to have abandoned the Maldives for reasons not clear. Since Maldives is in the care of strategic partner India, the US has little to worry about.
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