Veeragathy Thanabalasingham
Colombo, December 23: Sri Lankan government has taken a tactful decision to avoid a geopolitical crisis resulting from pressures usually from India and more recently from the US and Japan, due to the visit of Chinese research ships to Sri Lankan ports.
It has been decided to impose a one-year moratorium on allowing foreign ships to conduct research in Sri Lankan waters.
Foreign Minister Ali Sabry told the media this week that the decision will come into effect from January 2024 and that the government has notified the countries concerned. He added that the moratorium was announced with the aim of doing some capacity development to facilitate Sri Lanka to participate as an equal partner in the exploration activities carried out by foreign vessels in Sri Lankan waters.
The government’s decision came in the wake of China’s request for permission for another of its research ships to arrive at the port of Colombo to carry out research in Sri Lankan waters in the next few months.
Despite India’s objections, the Chinese ship Shi Yan 6 arrived in Colombo port in the latter part of October to conduct surveys along the Western coast of Sri Lanka with the participation of the National Aquatic Resources Research and Development Agency (NARA ) and Ruhuna University.
It is worth noting that within two months, China requested permission for the arrival of another ship. This time, China had sought permission not only from Sri Lanka but also from the Maldivian government for the ship Xiang Yang Hong 03 to carry out deep-sea exploration in the Southern Indian Ocean from January 5 to late May.
This request came from China when a pro-Chinese government came to power in the Maldives recently. The new Maldivian President, Mohamed Muizzu, immediately after taking office last month, asked New Delhi to withdraw Indian troops from his country. He had promised his countrymen in the recent Presidential election that he would send the Indian troops back.
A review of agreements with India signed by the former government led by President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih has also been ordered. This is to be done within the first 100 days, as per the election manifesto.
Former President Ibrahim Solih’s government signed a Hydrography Agreement with India in June 2019. The new President has now announced his withdrawal from the agreement. In case of withdrawal from the agreement, 6 months notice must be given. According to the notification, the agreement is due to expire on June 4, 2024. If not called off, the agreement would be automatically extend for five years.
China has asked the government of Maldives to allow its research ship into Maldives amid the possibility of a diplomatic spat between New Delhi and Male.
The important question is what Maldives will do after the Sri Lankan government has announced a one-year moratorium on granting permits to foreign research vessels.
India has already asked Sri Lanka and the Maldives not to allow the Xiang Yang Hong 03, saying that the research carried out by Chinese vessels in the Indian Ocean is aimed at future military operations. China has not respond yet to the Sri Lankan government’s decision.
Yuan Wang 5 arrived at Hambantota port in August 2022 and the Shi Yang 6 ship arrived at Colombo port in October this year, allegedly posing a threat to India’s security because of their intelligence-gathering capabilities.
But China, which said its ships are engaged in oceanographic research and do not in any way pose a threat to the security of any country, has strongly stated that it is wrong for a third country’s concerns to influence its bilateral engagements with Sri Lanka.
Sri Lanka is thus forced to adopt an approach that does not embarrass either India or China. The government said that when the previous two Chinese ships were docked in Sri Lankan ports, it stipulated that no research activity could be carried out in Sri Lankan waters without the presence of NARA.
However, what is the guarantee that the Chinese ships did not do any research respecting Sri Lanka’s conditions?
It is a complicated matter for Sri Lanka to allow a Chinese research vessel again within a very short period of time. The pressure that could come from India might be very severe this time.
China is putting pressure on Sri Lanka by frequently requesting permission for research vessels as the geopolitical rivalry between the superpowers intensifies. So Sri Lanka has been forced to find a way out of these problems for the time being. The result is a one-year moratorium on the granting of permission to foreign research vessels.
Sri Lanka has so far not taken any decision that could make China uncomfortable just because India is putting pressure. But there is no doubt that Sri Lanka’s current decision will definitely cause great discomfort to China.
At the same time, Sri Lanka may have also understood the need not to antagonize any major country in dealing with issues of geopolitical importance as national elections are to be held next year.
Meanwhile, some international political observers who suspect that India’s concerns about its security in the face of the visits of Chinese ships to Sri Lankan ports are overblown say that China does not need to send surveillance ships to Sri Lanka to know where India has deployed its strategic weapons, and that China’s satellite technology has grown tremendously.
There is a widespread perception in the southern Sri Lanka that India is expecting Colombo’s actions to be in exchange for the emergency loan of US$ 4 billion given last year when the island nation faced the worst economic crisis in its history.
It should be noted that despite several instances in the past where Sri Lanka did not respect New Delhi’s concerns on geopolitical issues, India had not been harsh towards Sri Lanka. But India needs to ensure that Sri Lanka does not surrender completely to China.
In any case, Sri Lanka will have to do tightrope walking because of the geopolitical competition between Asia’s two big powers. The rivalry for dominance in the Indian Ocean risks intensifying as China has now started calling the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) the ‘China-Indian Ocean Region’ (CIOR).
Senior Colombo-based Indian journalist P.K.Balachandran wrote an article in this regard in Newsin.Asia last week.
” In opposition to the traditional practice of using the term ‘ Indian Ocean ‘ for the sea stretching from the Bay of Bengal to Antarctica over 9,600 km on the North-South axis, and from Southern Africa to Australia over 7,600 km on the East-West axis, China has begun using the term ” China – Indian On Ocean Region.”
“The term ” China – Indian Ocean Region” (CIOR ) was used in many places in an official document relating to a recent international conference on the Blue Economy of the Indian Ocean Region ( IOR ).
” The conference which was on ” Blue Economy to Build Together a Marine Community with a shared Future ” was held in Kunming, in the Yunnan Province of China on December 7 and 8.
” According to a participant in the conference, the Chinese appeared to be against the identification of the Indian Ocean exclusively with India. Hence the re-designation of IOR as ” China – Indian Ocean Region” ( CIOR ) so that China too has a place in it.
” Participants in the conference from the region appeared to endorse the Chinese view in this matter apparently because they too felt the identification of the ocean with India alone gave the Indians a sense of ownership of the ocean and contributed to New Delhi’s bid to dominate it ” Balachandran wrote.
Sri Lanka faces a big problem as the Indian Ocean becomes a competitive arena for the world’s powers. It is therefore necessary for Sri Lanka to maintain a sensible foreign policy that would prevent it from being dragged into a dangerous geopolitical rivalry.
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