By P.K.Balachandran/Daily News
Colombo, January 18: Media reports suggest that Sri Lanka may go in for Russian help to set up a nuclear power plant to supplement the current energy mix. The Russian State-owned nuclear energy company Rosatom appears to be the front runner among international companies that have shown interest in investing in Sri Lanka in this sector. Russia has reportedly agreed to send a delegation from Rosatom to Sri Lanka to discuss its proposal.
A perusal of material on the subject by even Western experts would show that Russia is a leader in this field and that, for several good reasons. Kacper Szulecki and Indra Overland, say in their paper in Nature Energy (Volume 8, pages 413–421- 2023) that Russia’s portfolio of foreign orders in the field of nuclear energy, including reactor construction, fuel provision and other services, spans 54 countries. The deals are collectively worth more than US$139 billion over a ten year period.
A huge helpful factor is that, nuclear energy has not been covered by Western sanctions, so far.
Rosatom is heir to the Soviet Ministry of Atomic Energy, which was established in the aftermath of the Chernobyl nuclear accident. Reorganized as a State corporation in 2007, Rosatom is fully owned by the Russian state, and the president of the Russian Federation determines the company’s objectives.
Since its inception, Rosatom has become increasingly active in the international nuclear power market and has become a leading provider of key services. As many as ten reactor units were started between 2007 and 2017. And between 2009 and 2018, the company accounted for 23 of the 31 orders placed and about a half of the units under construction worldwide, Szulecki and Overland say.
Through its subsidiary TVEL Fuel Company, Rosatom also provides fuel supplies, controlling 38% of world’s uranium conversion and 46% of uranium enrichment capacity. It also undertakes decommissioning and waste disposal.
Between 2000 and 2015, Russia was the supplier in around half of all international agreements on nuclear power plant construction, reactor and fuel supply, decommissioning or waste between. Russia’s main nuclear power competitors—China, France, Japan, Korea and the United States—accounted for another 40%, combined, Kacpar Szulecki and Overland, point out.
The 2011 Fukushima accident, which created fears of nuclear plant disasters, did not have an impact on Rosatom. Also, the company’s operations were not impacted by sanctions against Russia over its occupation of Crimea and the eastern part of Donbas in 2014.
On Stop Nuclear Shop
Rosatom’s main advantage lies in its capacity to be a ‘one stop nuclear shop’ for all needs, the only supplier providing an ‘all-inclusive package’, the authors of the paper say.
“The package comprises reactor construction know-how, training, support related to safety, non-proliferation regime requirements and flexible financing options, including government-sourced credit lines. The company is also uniquely able to offload spent nuclear fuel from overseas customers.”
“While details of contractual agreements vary from case to case, the developer takes care of the entire process until the plant is ready to use and can be handed over to local (Russian-trained) nuclear experts to operate. For that reason, nuclear energy can be considered by countries for which it was previously unattainable, especially in the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa and South America,” the authors say.
Rosatom is also able to make special offers to strategically important partners, such as Turkiye.
“It was for Turkiyes’ ’s Akkuyu plant that Rosatom first proposed the innovative business model dubbed Build–Own–Operate (BOO), under which the Russian company retains majority ownership of the plant and a guaranteed price on electricity sales, and bears all the financial, construction and operational risks,” the authors point out.
Given its comparative advantages as a nuclear supplier, Russia is running a global campaign for nuclear energy that might be called “nuclear diplomacy” in which Rosatom and Russian government institutions such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs work in tandem. This gives Rosatom great political clout and reach.
At the time Russia invaded Ukraine, Rosatom boasted as many as 73 different projects in 29 countries, though at various stages of implementation. Russian companies had bilateral agreements or memoranda of understanding (MoUs) with 13 countries for services or for joint development of nuclear energy.
Rosatom’s projects and involvement have varied in ambition and cost. India’s Tarapur nuclear power plant (NPP) was valued at US$700 million; and Iran’s Bushehr-1 at US$850 million. A gargantuan project in South Africa was valued at US$76 billion.Those in Egypt and Turkey were valued at US$ 30 billion and US$ 20 billion respectively.
Thirteen countries have a variety of research-oriented agreements with Russian nuclear service providers. Altogether, Russia’s nuclear energy diplomacy has been formalized in 54 countries
Szulecki and Overland however point out that Rosatom has not been a success story all the way. Rosatom has not been able to deliver all the projects that it had agreed to, let alone expand further. Potential foreign policy influence by Russia was felt in Finland and Hungary. Some deals went through a rough patch due to a lack of flexibility in the implimentation.
At the time Russia invaded Ukraine, Rosatom boasted as many as 73 different projects in 29 countries, though at various stages of implementation. Russian companies had bilateral agreements or memoranda of understanding (MoUs) with 13 countries for services or for joint development of nuclear energy.
Rosatom’s projects and involvement have varied in ambition and cost. India’s Tarapur nuclear power plant (NPP) was valued at US$700 million; and Iran’s Bushehr-1 at US$850 million. A gargantuan project in South Africa was valued at US$76 billion.Those in Egypt and Turkey were valued at US$ 30 billion and US$ 20 billion respectively.
Thirteen countries have a variety of research-oriented agreements with Russian nuclear service providers. Altogether, Russia’s nuclear energy diplomacy has been formalized in 54 countries.
The Warts
However, Szulecki and Overland point out that looking into the details of these agreements (particularly the Nuclear Power Plant construction projects) one would find warts.
“Many of the projects have been stuck at the planning stage for several years or are merely visions laid out in non-committal MoUs. Competing offers might ultimately be chosen over those from Rosatom. For instance, the expansion of the Dukovany plant in Czechia saw calls from opposition parties and the Czech secret service to exclude both Chinese and Russian companies from the tender, citing security concerns, Rosatom was explicitly excluded in 2021 following news of Russian intelligence involvement in a 2014 explosion at a Czech ammunition depot,” the authors recall.
And because of the Soviet aggression in Ukraine, Bulgaria signed a new 10-year agreement with Westinghouse of the US to provide fuel for its existing reactors, New York Times reported recently. Poland is about to construct its first nuclear power plant, which will feature three Westinghouse reactors. Slovakia and even Hungary, Russia’s closest ally in the European Union, have also reached out to alternative fuel suppliers, the paper added
“We see a lot of genuine movement,” the NYT quoted Tarik Choho, president of nuclear fuel unit at Westinghouse. He added that the Ukraine war accelerated Europe’s search for new suppliers. “Even Hungary wants to diversify.”
William Freebairn, senior managing editor for nuclear energy at S&P Commodity Insights, told the paper: “Within days of the invasion,” he said, “just about every country that operated a Russian reactor started looking for alternate supply.”
Well Endowed
But even with disruptions of this sort, Russia struts on the world’s nuclear energy stage like a colossus. This is because of several reasons, one of which is that it has the relevant natural resources.
Russia is among the five countries with the world’s largest uranium resources. It is estimated to have about 486,000 tons of uranium, the equivalent of 8 percent of global supply, Radio Free Europe says.
However, uranium mining is just one piece of the nuclear process. Raw uranium is not suitable as fuel for nuclear plants. It needs to be refined into uranium concentrate, converted into gas, and then enriched. And this is where Russia excels.
In 2020, there were just four conversion plants operating commercially — in Canada, China, France, and Russia. In this, Russia was the largest player, with almost 40% of the total uranium conversion infrastructure in the world. It therefore produced the largest share of uranium in gaseous form (called uranium hexafluoride).
The same goes for uranium enrichment, the next step in the nuclear cycle. According to 2018 data that capacity was spread among a handful of key players, with Russia once again responsible for the largest share — about 46%.
Therefore, Russia is a significant supplier of both uranium and uranium enrichment services. According to the latest available data, the European Union purchased about 20% of its natural uranium and 26% of its enrichment services from Russia in 2020. The United States imported about 14% of its uranium and 28% of all enrichment services from Russia in 2021.
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