New Delhi, January 25 (India Today): The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would lose its overwhelming majority in Parliament if Lok Sabha elections were to be held today, an extensive survey conducted across the country has found. The survey predicts a hung Parliament if elections were held today.
According to the India Today-Karvy Insights Mood of the Nation poll, the NDA would be nowhere close to the magic figure of 272 that a political party or alliance needs to form the government. According to the Mood of the Nation poll, the NDA would win 237 seats, a massive drop of 99 seats compared to the coalition’s 2014 tally.
The staggering nature of NDA’s loss can be understood from the fact that the Bharatiya Janata Party crossed the figure of 272 on its own in 2014.
The Mood of the Nation poll predicts massive wins for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA). The UPA would win 166 seats while parties that are not part of either the NDA or the UPA would win 140 seats.
For the UPA, this is an increase of 106 seats compared to its 2014 tally.
The only solace for the NDA in this Mood of the Nation poll is that its vote share would be higher than the UPA’s.
But even that silver lining is not without a set of worry — the Mood of the Nation poll forecasts a drop in vote share for the BJP-led NDA. The UPA would see a rise in its vote share.
According to the Mood of the Nation poll, the NDA would get 35 per cent of votes while the UPA would get 33 per cent.
These numbers, by the way, hold true only if the NDA and the UPA remain as they are right now. The numbers are based on the following compositions:
- NDA:BJP, All India N Rangaswamy Congress, Apna Dal, Bodo People’s Front, DMDK, JD(U), LJP, Naga People’s Front, PMK, National People’s Party, RPI(A), SAD, Sikkim Democratic Front, Shiv Sena
- UPA:Congress, DMK, JD(S), National Conference, JMM, Kerala Congress (Mani), IUML, NCP, RJD, RLD, TDP
- Others:AAP, AGP, AIMIM, AIADMK, Forward Bloc, TMC, AIUDF, BJD, CPI, CPI(M), INLD, PDP, Kerala Congress (Joseph), MNS, NLP, RSP (RSP is with the Left alliance in West Bengal and with the UPA in Kerala), TRS, YSRC, Independents and SP-BSP-RLD alliance in Uttar Pradesh
WORRY FOR PM NARENDRA MODI
The Mood of the Nation poll comes just months before the Lok Sabha elections are to be held. The predictions of the Mood of the Nation poll will be a cause of worry for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his top lieutenant, BJP chief Amit Shah.
A hung Parliament would mean that the NDA would need to scramble to get support from non-UPA parties. This could lead to demands that somebody other than Narendra Modi be prime minister.
The Lok Sabha polls is likely to be held around April and the results should be out in May. The Rahul Gandhi-led Congress will be looking to revive its fortunes after the party reached a historic low of 44 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha election.
MOTN: THE TWO SCENARIOS IN WHICH UPA CAN RETURN TO POWER
Based on the MOTN survey, there are two scenarios in which the Congress-led UPA can return to power at the Centre. We’ll break it down for you.
SCENARIO ONE: Let’s assume the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Trinamool Congress (TMC), Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party join forces with the UPA. On the other side, let’s say the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the YSR Congress join the NDA.
What do the projected tallies look like now? Remember, the majority mark in the Lok Sabha, which has 543 elected seats, is 272.
In Scenario One, the UPA is projected to have exactly 272 seats, with a seat share of 44 per cent. The NDA would have 234 seats, leaving 37 for the others.
By the way, 234 plus 37 is 271 — one short of a majority.
SCENARIO TWO: Now, let’s tweak things just a little bit. The UPA remains the same as in Scenario One. What happens if the Telanagana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) and the Biju Janata Dal (BJP) also join the NDA, in addition to the AIADMK and the YSR Congress?
The UPA is still king — the projected seat tally is 272. The NDA’s tally grows just a bit: 257. Others: 14.
257 plus 14? 271 again.
NOW, A THIRD SCENARIO: Here we assume it’s just the TMC, SP and BSP join the UPA. No additions in the NDA.
Then, the NDA’s projected seat tally would be 219 and the UPA’s 269. Others would have 55. Advantage UPA, but remember 219 plus 55 gives the NDA 274 seats.
Of course, all these are big ifs. The Congress has been left out of the SP-BSP alliance in Uttar Pradesh, and is the TMC’s rival in West Bengal (although Rahul Gandhi extended support to the opposition rally held by Mamata Banerjee).
A quick recap
So, the India Today-Karvy Insights Mood of the Nation poll predicts that if elections were held today, the NDA would emerge as the single-largest coalition.
However, with just 237 Lok Sabha seats (99 less than its 2014 tally), the NDA would be 35 short of the majority mark of 272 needed to form government.
The Congress-led UPA with its predicted 166 seats would win 106 seats more than what it did in 2014. Other parties would win 140 seats.