Colombo, January 13: The results of the Taiwanese Presidential and parliamentary elections held on Saturday, were a mixed bag for Communist China, which had stepped up its campaign to reunify China in the run-up to the elections.
While the anti-China Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the Presidency, the DPP lost to the pro-China Kuomintang (KMT) in the parliamentary elections.
In the Presidential election, Lai Ching-te beat Hou Yu-ih of the KMT bagging 40% of the votes under the first past the post system. Hou Yu-eh got 33.5%. But in the parliamentary elections, the KMT got 52 seats and the DPP 51 out of the 133 seats up for grabs.
72% of the nearly 19 million eligible voters had voted in the elections.
Opinions polls conducted prior to the elections, had correctly predicted the outcome. A TVBS poll conducted on Monday put DPP’s Lai at 33% with KMT’s Hou at 30% and former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je of the small Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) at 22%.
The ETtoday poll on Tuesday put Lai at 38.9%, Hou at 35.8% and Ko at 22.4%. A survey done by My Formosa released on December 28 found support for Lai at 40%, for Hou at 28.9 % and for Dr Ko Wen-je at 17.6%.
Given the fact reunification with China was a major issue, the slim margin of victories show that the issue was deeply divisive.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, who gave unification with Taiwan top billing in his New Year message, will be disappointed with the results. But he can also draw comfort from the fact that the KMT lost narrowly, and that the issue of unification engages the Taiwanese quite intensely.
True to style, China said it would not give up on achieving “reunification” despite the electoral setback.
In the run-up to the election, China had repeatedly denounced Lai Ching-te as a “dangerous separatist” using Beijing’s description of Taiwan politicians who are keen on keeping Taiwan’s separateness from Communist China. Beijing had rebuffed Lai’s repeated calls for talks as he was not thought to be friendly.
Though Lai could not get 50% plus (partly because of the administrative flaws in rule DPP’s rule) the DPP got a third successive four-year term. This is unprecedented under Taiwan’s current electoral system.
But having a lead of only one seat in parliament, and with the pro-Beijing KMT so close, Lai may find the going tough in parliament.
To smoothen ruffled feathers in Beijing, Lai said that he would maintain the status quo in Taiwan’s relations with China while being “determined to safeguard Taiwan from threats and intimidation from China”.
Beijing wants DPP to abide by the “1992 Consensus” which it had entered into with the KMT. But the DPP does not recognise any consensus.
However, the DPP has been, and still is, open to trading and having economic relations with China, without an outright absorption by China. The KMT, on the other hand, wants to have a much closer relationship just short of reunification. Hong Kong could be among the models for consideration when the time is ripe for reunification.
Given the fact that unification is an explosive issue, all the three stakeholders, namely, China, Taiwan and the US, are approaching the issue carefully, despite the aggressive public posturing. A war over Taiwan like the one over Ukraine is unlikely given the ramifications and the lessons learned from the Russo-Ukrainian war.
This is reflected in the reaction of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office to Lai’s victory. Without mentioning Lai, it said that the mixed results revealed that the DPP “cannot represent the mainstream public opinion.”
“Our stance on resolving the Taiwan question and realizing national reunification remains consistent, and our determination is as firm as rock,” Reuters quoted the office as saying.
But the official also said that China would work with “relevant political parties, groups, and people from Taiwan to boost exchanges and cooperation, and advance the peaceful development of cross-strait relations as well as the cause of national reunification”.
Given the fact that his position is weak in parliament, Lai said he would cooperate with his electoral rivals, Hou Yu-ih of the KMT and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), in resolving the problems Taiwan faces. The TPP had secured eight seats and has resolved to sit on the fence, supporting some legislation and opposing others on merit.
All said and done, reunification will continue to engage or torment Taiwan and Taiwanese politicians. It is an extremely critical issue for Xi Jinping as re-absorption of Taiwan is an unfinished part of the Chinese communist revolution.
Mao Zedong’s Peoples’ Liberation Army (PLA) was able to drive the Japanese and the United States-backed Kuomintang (KMT) out of the mainland by 1949. But it could not take Taiwan to which the KMT had fled. In 1997, China was able to get Hong Kong back from the British peacefully. Macao was secured from the Portuguese in 1999, also peacefully. But Taiwan has remained elusive, being armed to the teeth and protected by the US.
Xi Jinping is very keen on getting Taiwan back whether by peaceful means or war. While there is no official time frame, it is well known that he would like China completely unified by 2049, the centenary year of the establishment of the People’s Republic of China.
The imperial government of China had ceded Taiwan (then known as Formosa) to Japan in 1895. It was taken by the US from Japan in 1945 towards the end of World War II and handed over to the KMT in 1949 when the KMT fled from mainland China and sought refuge in Taiwan.
Although no party or political leader in Taiwan has openly sought reunification, improvement of economic and trade relations with Beijing is sought by all parties. But the degree of cooperation desired varies. Strangely enough, the KMT, which had had the sharpest and longest contradictions with the mainland’s Communists, now wants great cooperation with Beijing than the DPP.
The DPP victory has come as a relief to the US which has huge stakes in Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific. A KMT victory would have been bad news. However, if the next US President wants to wash himself off the responsibility of defending other countries, a Taiwan-China rapprochement will be welcomed in Washington DC.
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