By P.K.Balachandran/Ceylon Today
Colombo November 27: The Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland exhibit unity as well as diversity. While the Irish Republic is an independent country and is a member of the European Union (EU), Northern Ireland is a constituent of the United Kingdom (UK), and after Brexit, is out of the EU also. The Irish Republic is overwhelmingly Catholic (78%). In Northern Ireland, Catholics are the single largest group (45%), but other Christian denominations are collectively more.
Though religion has been a major divisive factor historically, there is now a campaign in both Irelands, to forget the animosities of the past and unite to form a single Ireland.
Sinn Fein, a nationalist and leftist party, is the largest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly, having won the largest share of first-preference votes and the most number of seats in the 2022 elections. But it could not form a government because the planned coalition had failed to come about. That crisis began when the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) withdrew from the power-sharing government in a row over post-Brexit trade rules.
Sinn Fein is leading the movement for the unification of the two Irelands. The Sinn Fein leader, Mary Lou McDonald, had recently called upon the government of the Republic of Ireland to create a “Citizens’ Assembly on Irish Unity.” She said she wanted to see “orange and green reconciled in a new Ireland.” Orange is identified with the Irish Republic and green with Northern Ireland.
Though essentially a party of Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein’s popularity has grown in the Republic of Ireland, where also it aims for a place in government.
McDonald has said that the generation of politicians who had worked on the 1998 Good Friday Agreement between the UK government and the Irish Republican Army (lRA) to end the insurgency in Northern Ireland “wrote Ireland’s chapter of peace”. The current generation, she stressed, “must write the chapter of unity”. A united Ireland “lies ahead”, she predicted.
After the end of the “Troubles” of the 1980s and 1990s and the Good Friday Agreement of 1998, Northern Ireland’s place in the UK was non-controversial. But that could not be for very long. Relations with the UK came under strain when the latter campaigned for leaving the EU and eventually leaving it, a movement called Brexit.
Brexit has been a disruptor of significant magnitude. It meant that the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland—a symbol of division—would cease to soft or open and become hard or closed. Traditionally, the border between the two Irelands has been open. With the UK getting out of the EU and the Irish Republic continuing to be in the EU, the border between the Irish Republic and Northern Island was to become “hard”.
However, the “Northern Ireland Protocol” which was subsequently expanded in the “Windsor Framework”, prevented the establishment of a hard border between the two Irelands.
Despite the Good Friday Agreement, relations between Northern Ireland and the UK has remained delicate. It is noteworthy that it was in the aftermath of Brexit that discussions about Irish reunification began.
At the bottom of the demand for unification is the continued economic disparity between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, coupled with a renewed desire in Northern Ireland to remain in the European Union.
Despite its goal of enhancing the UK’s sovereignty, Brexit may expedite the UK’s dissolution. Sections of Scotland have been wanting to break away from the UK and be able to chalk out the Scot’s destiny independently.
Sinn Fein, which is a power in Northern Ireland could form the government in the Republic of Ireland’s government also. Its leader Lou McDonald could become the new “Taoiseach” or Prime Minister of the Republic of Ireland. In that case, the prospects of the unification of the two Irelands would brighten and the prospects of the UK remaining as it is, will become dimmer.
Pitfalls
However, despite the increasing discussion on unification on public platforms, only a minority of the public in both Irelands currently favour reunification or even a referendum on unification.
“Achieving unity requires a seismic shift in societal attitudes, transcending politics,” says a comment piece on the issue in the website Global Europe.
The Good Friday Agreement and the Northern Ireland Act of 1998 stipulate that a vote on Irish reunification must be called only if it appears likely to the Secretary of State of the UK that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the UK and form part of a united Ireland.
But the Good Friday Agreement does not specify what exactly constitutes a “wish for reunification”.
The path to reunification is further complicated by the fact that once negotiations for a united Ireland are concluded, implementing the outcome would require a constitutional amendment in the Republic of Ireland, necessitating another referendum, Global Europe points out.
A united Ireland could mean a harmonized Irish island where physical and psychological borders give way to shared aspirations. But efforts to push a border poll could also escalate lingering tensions and reignite deeply internalized animosities, like the Catholic-Protestant conflict, Global Europe warns.
The most critical question is: Would the predominantly Protestant Northern Ireland want strong unity with the predominantly Catholic Republic of Ireland? Global Europe points out that the preservation of Northern Ireland’s unique identity while taking its place in a united Ireland, would involve an intricate balancing act.
Will the lessons of history guide the pursuit of unification? Received wisdom says that majorities will always impose their will on the minorities despite the persistent chanting of the mantra of “unity in diversity.” Given the way majorities treat minorities, will the Protestants want to live in a united Ireland, where the Catholics will be an overwhelming majority?
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