By Sugeeswara Senadheera/Daily News
Colombo, June 14: The Indian electorate has proved its political maturity time and again. Nearly 50 years ago, when the Indian literacy rate was below 50%, the Indian electorate gave a stunning verdict to oust powerful Prime Minister Indira Gandhi at the 1977 General Elections. The irony was that the same electorate had given a resounding victory to Indira Congress at the 1971 General Elections held immediately after the victory of India over Pakistan—not in cricket but at war—leading to East Pakistan becoming a separate independent country under the name Bangladesh. The war victory prompted the then Congress President Dev Kant Barua to declare, “India is Indira.”
Within a few years, Indira Gandhi lost not only the government but also her Lok Sabha seat because the Indian electorate was vehemently opposed to the imposition of Emergency rule and the extension of her term by two years.
Indira’s rule
Her second term, especially the period from 1974 to 1977, saw excesses as seen in Emergency rule when she had suspended civil liberties, censored media, and jailed hundreds of opposition leaders, including the much-respected Jayaprakash Narayan.
Veteran editor and commentator Tarun Basu said that her defeat was all the more shocking as in the pre-internet and social media era there was hardly any inkling that the same people who had hailed her not too long ago for engineering the military victory over Pakistan in its eastern part that led to the creation of Bangladesh would teach her a political lesson through the ballot so quickly.
Last week, the Indian voter gave another a similar signal baffling most of the pre-election exit polls that signalled total victory. As Basu explained, the Indian electorate—who braved the scorching summer sun, trekked long distances, and resisted blandishments to vote, belying cynicism about the political acuity of the poor and illiterate voter—delivered another stunning message to the country’s political class, particularly the governing elite.
It’s that you cannot rule India by dividing its people; that religion cannot be used to pit one community against another; that name, dynasty, and political weight of candidates do not matter but work does; and that changes are good in a democracy.
The most prominent seven exit polls predicted that the BJP and its allies would win 350-380 out of the 543—seat Lok Sabha, the lower house of India’s Parliament, with at least one saying it would cross the 400 mark that Modi had loudly proclaimed his alliance would get at the beginning of the election campaign.
The BJP government had tried to leverage India’s rising global status and its Hindu nationalist credentials during the election campaign. However, the poll outcome proved that the Indian electorate was keener on local livelihood issues, and ultimately that became the decisive factor for voters.
Absolute majority
The Indian voters from Kashmir in the north to Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan in the central Indian heartland, to Kerala and Tamil Nadu in the south; from Gujarat in the west to the remote north-eastern states, the verdict of a diverse electorate in a multi-religious, multilingual, multicultural nation stood out for its clarity—“do not take us for granted!”
Although the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) fell way short of its ambitious target of a 2/3rds majority, but the NDA managed to win enough seats to form a comfortable government. BJP, with 240 seats, is the largest single party, way ahead of the opposition Congress Party. Despite the victory, the fact that BJP could not get an absolute majority of 272 in a house of 543 is not a happy augury for the BJP as it will have to accommodate coalition partners.
At the same time, the opposition’s Congress-led INDIA Alliance cannot be overjoyed or complacent over the poll result. The Congress Party, which has led most governments in India’s post-independence history, won less than half the seats that the BJP secured. Although they got more seats than predictions by exit polls, it is very clear that the voters are not ready to pass on the mantle to them to govern.
Although BJP suffered some losses at the elections, Modi remains the most popular leader. Despite his weakened position, it is too soon to write off Modi completely as he has a proven record of strong comebacks.
Modi is only the second Prime Minister in India’s history to secure three consecutive terms in office—the first being India’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru. And Modi has demonstrated an ability to reinvent himself. Most Indians feel that a strong leader like Modi could lead the country towards development though he should not be allowed to govern unchecked.
Now he is the head of a coalition with its checks and balances. But the voters feel such a coalition is better than a ragtag collective of opposition parties with diverse policies that can agree only on the slogan ‘oust-Modi.’
As the Economist said, India, the world’s biggest electorate, has just shown how democracy can rebuke out-of-touch elites, limit the concentration of power, and change a country’s destiny. That India’s vibrant democracy has proved its resilience once again is a testament to the will of the ordinary Indian who has shown time and again that when democracy is in danger it is their vote that will make it count.
Election Commission
The role of the Election Commission of India is to be lauded for successfully conducting the world’s biggest franchise peacefully without any hindrance. Despite reservations about the fair conduct of the elections, especially the probity of the counting process which involved a record turnout of 642 million voters, including 312 million women who voted through 5.5 million electronic voting machines in more than a million polling stations across the country, there were virtually no protests once the results were declared.
What was remarkable was that despite the sheer scale of the elections—which involved setting up polling stations for even a single voter in remote regions, be it a forest or high altitudes—there were no major incidents of violence.
The Lok Sabha election concluded in the first week of this month has reasserted India’s democratic credentials. The election has shown that democracy remains strong and cannot be easily overturned in a country as large and diverse as India. It is indeed an eye-opener for other democratic countries grappling with issues pertaining to universal franchise and trying to cope with needs for electoral reforms.
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