By P.K.Balachandran/Daily News
Colombo, September 24: The result of the Ninth Sri Lankan Presidential election is in some ways akin to recent developments in the South Asian neighbourhood. Strong and well-entrenched leaders were humbled by seemingly weaker opponents in India and Bangladesh. In Sri Lanka, a formidable sitting President Ranil Wickremesinghe was pushed to the third position in the September 21 election.
Last month, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, an iron lady credited with putting the country on the economic fast track, was ousted and driven out of the country by a university students-led mass movement. Her thumping victory in the January 2024 parliamentary elections did not matter.
In June, to the surprise of most, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi failed to achieve his target of 400 plus seats in a parliament of 543 members. His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) did not get a majority on its own and had to depended on allies to form a government. An unfancied Rahul Gandhi-led rag tag INDIA coalition had performed much better than expected.
And now in Sri Lanka, experienced politician, seasoned administrator and sitting President Ranil Wickremesinghe was mauled by a political greenhorn, Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the National Peoples’ Power (NPP).
Dissanayake won with 42% of the vote, Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) came second with 32%. Wickremesighe got only 17.2%.
That Wickremesinghe had toiled under very trying local and global conditions from July 2022 to September 2024 to restore normalcy in Sri Lanka crippled by a severe shortage of essentials, did not seem to matter. That he had secured an IMF package of US$ 3 billion with Western and Indian support in addition to US$ 4.5 billion from India, also did not matter.
New Features
However the 9th., Lankan Presidential election will stand out for the following reasons:
For the first time a candidate with little or no administrative experience and from a very small party, emerged as the single largest vote getter. The most experienced candidate, President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who had held Finance and Defence portfolios apart from the Premiership and the Presidency was pushed to the third position.
Dissanayake had only been an Agriculture Minister for a year in a coalition government long ago. He has only had parliamentary experience though he often led the opposition charge against governments in his inimitable spirited style. Even Sajith Premadasa had only been Housing Minister.
Sri Lankan voters defied conventional ideas about voter behaviour. It was thought that people would vote on the basis of loyalty to parties and also as whole families rather than as individuals. It was also thought that voting would be on the basis of the rural-urban divide or class and cultural divides. But the voting pattern this time showed that Dissanayake had support across social, ethnic, regional and religious divides.
Another popular pre-election theory was that economic factors would determine the voting pattern. Because Wickremesinghe had turned the economy round it was thought that he would reap a rich harvest of votes. But that was not to be!
On the contrary, non-economic factors proved to be decisive. These were: (1) a yearning for a new face (2) thirst for a total change even if there was no clear idea of the nature of change (3) anger against Wickremesinghe for running the government with the help of MPs belonging the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) led by the “corrupt” Rajapaksa family.
Wickremesinghe’s plea that he had to seek the help of the SLPP to pass legislation in parliament to save the economy, fell on deaf ears. He lost because he was tainted by his association with the Rajapaksas. The fact that Namal Rajapaksa was one of the 38 candidates contesting against him did not help wash off the taint.
Waiting Challenges
Given the fact that Dissanayake was trying to appeal to every section of Sri Lankan society, and not just the working class, he had toned down his Marxist or radical left wing rhetoric and assured each section that he would not be hostile to them. Such assurances were given to the corporates who were anxious about his stand on the private sector. He told the Tamils in Jaffna that he would decentralise power.
Dissanayake’s nostrum was “change” though he never defined it or indicated a pathway to it. Nonetheless, the inchoate notion of “change” was taken as face value by people of all classes, who were thirsting for “change from the old corrupt order and corrupt politicians.”
Dissanayake’s USP was that he had no charges of corruption attached to him – an advantage accruing from his non-involvement in government.
Be that as it may, now that he is in government, his voters expect him to hound the “corrupt” Rajapaksas and their coterie and recover the money they had allegedly stashed away overseas. This is a tall order for any government anywhere in the world.
Dissanayake has promised to revise the IMF’s prescriptions to make them more tolerable for the poor. But it is not clear as to what precisely he wants to do in this matter. Perhaps he intends to increase direct cash transfers, bringing down taxes etc with the IMF’s nod.
But experts say that any drastic change in the IMF’s prescriptions or any refusal to abide them, may result in Sri Lanka’s going back again to the IMF for the 17 th. time.
Sri Lanka has not got out of the freebie culture. But the government as no money to give freebies any more. It is not clear as to how Dissanayake hopes to bring money into the exchequer. There are limits to tax concessions. Scaling down expenditure on the public sector and on the public services in a country where there is unemployment and lack of quality jobs, is not easy.
As people have voted him, expecting him to bring them tangible relief, the burden on him to deliver would be particularly heavy.
Furthermore, the issue of renegotiating the IMF bailout could put strains in Sri Lanka’s relations with the US, India and even China as these back the IMF program.
India had sent its External Affairs Minister S.Jaishankar and Finance Minister Nirmala Seetharaman to talk to the IMF on Sri Lanka’s behalf. India had formally stood up for Sri Lanka, as did China. Any bid to change the deal will upset the international relations applecart.
Relations with India
As a Marxist, Dissanayaka has been a natural ally of China, but his party, especially its hard core the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), is better known for its anti-Indian tinge.
Dissanayake cut his teeth in agitation politics in 1987 when the JVP was leading street battles in Colombo against the India-Sri Lanka Accord of 1987 and the deployment of the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) to implement a scheme of power devolution for the minority Tamils.
During his election campaign Dissanayake pointed out that the Sri Lankan market is flooded with Indian goods and that these must be replaced by local products. He also said that the grant of the 99 giant oil tanks in Trincomalee to India was problematical and that global tenders have to be floated for their development and use. He has said that the projects that were given to the Adanis need to be reviewed.
However, when talking to Indian media, Dissanayake promised that his government would not do anything that endangers India’s security and that he recognized the importance of India in the region.
Nevertheless, it will be a challenge for the hard core Marxist and nationalist Dissanayake to keep all interests happy whether in Sri Lanka or outside.
Fortunately, India has held out its hand of friendship. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has tweeted saying: “Congratulations @anuradisanayake, on your victory in the Sri Lankan Presidential elections. Sri Lanka holds a special place in India’s Neighbourhood First Policy and Vision SAGAR. I look forward to working closely with you to further strengthen our multifaceted cooperation for the benefit of our people and the entire region.”
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