By P. K. Balachandran/Eurasia Review
Colombo, May 11: Vicious anti-Muslim rhetoric is likely to be the main plank of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the last four phases of the elections to the Lower House of the Indian parliament (Lok Sabha).
Voting ends on June 1 and the results will be announced on June 4.
Faced with below par response from voters to his appeal for 400 plus seats in the 543-seat Lok Sabha in the first phases of the election, the BJP supremo and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been resorting to wile anti-Muslim propaganda to win the votes of India’s Hindu majority.
Modi began by saying that if the Congress came to power, it will take away the gold chain worn by married Hindu women and the cattle of Hindu farmers and give them to Muslims. The Congress would also lock the newly-built temple of the Hindu God Rama in Ayodhya that had been built on a site where a 500-year old mosque stood before it was demolished by a Hindu mob in 1992.
On Thursday, Modi’s government released an analysis done by the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PM-EAC) which said that in the 65-year period between 1950 and 2015, the share of the Hindu population in India had dipped by 7.82%, while that of Muslims, Christians and Sikhs had risen.
The idea in putting out this report was to enhance fears in the minds of Hindus about being eventually outnumbered by Muslims.
Indian Express reported that the data for the report was taken from the “Religious Characteristics of States Dataset 2017” which tracked religious composition in populations across countries. The study focussed only on countries that had a majority religion accounting for more than 50% of the total population in 1950.
The data showed that the population of Hindus in India declined by 7.82%, and the share of Muslim population rose from 9.84% to 14.09%. The share of the Christian population rose from 2.24% to 2.36%, that of the Sikh population increased from 1.24% to 1.85%, and the share of the Buddhist population rose from 0.05% to 0.81%.
Jain and Parsi populations witnessed a dip: from 0.45% to 0.36% in the case of Jains, and from 0.03% to 0.0004% in the case of Parsis.
According to the PM-EAC, the rise in the share of minorities suggested “the net result of policy actions, political decisions and societal processes had provided a conducive environment for increasing diversity in society.”
The report hinted that a policy of “minority appeasement” followed by previous Congress governments had resulted in a rise in the population of minorities, especially Muslims.
The analysis pointed out that while the minorities throve in India, in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka, they shrank.
Indian Express went on to quote the Population Foundation of India, a non-profit that works on addressing population issues through research and advocacy, as saying that the PM-EAC report should not be interpreted to incite fear or discrimination against any community.
Population Foundation of India said in a statement that it is deeply concerned about the recent media reports that are misreporting the findings from the study by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister “Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)” to spread alarm regarding the growth of the Muslim population. Such interpretations are not only inaccurate but also misleading and baseless.
The study’s focus on changes in the share of majority and minority religious groups globally over a 65-year period should not be used to incite fear or discrimination against any community. “The media’s selective portrayal of data to highlight the increase in the Muslim population is an example of misrepresentation that ignores broader demographic trends,” said Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director, Population Foundation of India.
According to the Census of India, the decadal growth rate for Muslims has been declining over the past three decades. Specifically, the decadal growth rate for Muslims decreased from 32.9% in 1981-1991 to 24.6% in 2001-2011. This decline is more pronounced than that of Hindus, whose growth rate fell from 22.7% to 16.8% over the same period. The census data is available from 1951 to 2011 and is quite similar to the data in this study, indicating that these numbers are not new.
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) among all religious groups is declining. The highest decrease in TFR from 2005-06 to 2019-21 was observed among Muslims, which dropped by 1 percentage point, followed by Hindus at 0.7 percentage points. This trend underscores that the fertility rates are converging across different religious communities.
Fertility rates are closely linked to education and income levels, not religion. States with better access to education, healthcare, and socioeconomic development, such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu, exhibit lower TFRs across all religious groups. For example, the TFR among Muslim women in Kerala (2.25) is lower than the TFR among Hindu women in Bihar (2.88).
Successful family planning programs in Muslim-majority countries like Bangladesh and Indonesia have resulted in lower birth rates compared to India. These countries have achieved this through higher levels of female education, greater employment opportunities, and better access to contraceptive choices. This clearly shows that fertility decline is influenced by development factors rather than religious affiliation.
“The most effective way to manage population growth is through investment in education, economic development, and gender equity,” said Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director of Population Foudation of India.
“Our analysis indicates that women’s education is the most critical factor in reducing fertility rates. Therefore, interventions should focus on providing education and family planning services irrespective of religion.”
There are several population issues the world is grappling with. The world is currently witnessing two distinct population trajectories: in developed countries, populations are aging and declining, presenting complex challenges for social and economic sustainability, while certain regions in the developing world are experiencing population growth, characterized by a large young population with enormous potential. This stark contrast in demographic trends underscores the multifaceted nature of global population dynamics, necessitating nuanced policy approaches to address the diverse needs and dynamics of populations across different regions. India needs to invest in women and young people to reap demographic and gender dividends. Additionally, it will need to prepare for an aging population in the future, which could yield a silver dividend.
Population Foundation of India urges the media to refrain from using demographic studies to create fear and division. It is essential to present data accurately and contextually, highlighting the role of education, income, and socioeconomic development in shaping demographic trends. We advocate for policies that promote inclusive development and gender equity to ensure a balanced and harmonious society.
The Wire used a report of the National Family Health Survey (2019-21) to say that the difference between Hindu and Muslim fertility rate is only 0.42 children per woman. The Hindu rate was 1.94 children per woman and the Muslim rate was 2.36 children per woman.
This is a drastic difference compared to the situation in 1992 when Muslim women were estimated to have an average of 1.1 more children than Hindu women.
The Wire further said that in the last two decades, the Hindu fertility had dropped by 30% against 35% among Muslims.
A 2021 report by the Pew Research Centre substantiates these findings. The fertility rate among Muslims is now almost equal to that of Hindus. Between 1992 and 2015, the Muslim fertility rate declined from 4.4 to 2.6 while Hindus’ rate dipped from 3.3 to 2.1.
Shah’s Fulmination
On Thursday, the Central Home Minister Amit Shah declared at a campaign meeting in Telangana, that the current electoral battle is between “Vikas” (the Development agenda of the BJP) and “Jihad” (Fight for Islam by the Congress).
Shah described the rival Congress, Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), and All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) as forming a “triangle of Muslim appeasement”.
He said: “These people don’t allow the celebration of the Hyderabad Liberation Day (September 17). These people oppose the Citizenship Amendment Act. These people want to run Telangana on the basis of Sharia and Quran.”
Shah’s remarks are not just a ploy to consolidate Hindu votes in Telangana, which has a significant Muslim population but are messages meant to have an all-India impact because the BJP’s overall aim is to garner the votes of the Hindus who are 85% of the Indian population, by alienating them from the Muslims who are 15% of the population.
Shah blamed the Congress party for giving 4% reservation for Muslims in Telangana and promised that if BJP won, it would abolish reservation for Muslims in jobs and increase reservation for Hindu Dalits, Tribals and other Backward Classes.
Prime Minister Modi had earlier vowed that he would never extend reservation to Muslims across the country so long as he is in power. He had dubbed the Congress party’s election manifesto as that of the Muslim League, which had fought for the creation of Pakistan a country for the Muslims.
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