• Latest
  • Trending

Three years into Modi government, economic outlook is still cloudy

July 17, 2017
Mars

Mars bar plastic wrapper swapped for paper

May 29, 2023
Sri Lanka – Bangladesh Test Match live

How much will Sri Lanka get from ICC for test championship?

May 29, 2023
Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Erdogan wins Turkish election, extending rule to third decade

May 29, 2023
Exchange Rate

Foreign Currency Official Exchange Rates from Central Bank of Sri Lanka

May 29, 2023
New Congress government restoring communal balance in Karnataka

New Congress government restoring communal balance in Karnataka

May 29, 2023
Gold. Image credits - Jingming Pan / Unsplash

Gold prices drop further in Sri Lanka

May 29, 2023
India in global competition to woo Pacific islands

India in global competition to woo Pacific islands

May 29, 2023
Factum Perspective: Thai elections – A challenge to the military

Factum Perspective: Thai elections – A challenge to the military

May 28, 2023
Using an ancient scepter to win over Tamil Nadu

Using an ancient scepter to win over Tamil Nadu

May 28, 2023
Siddharamaiah: The new face of Karnataka

Siddharamaiah: The new face of Karnataka

May 28, 2023
Bandaranaike MemoriaI International Conference Hall cemented Sino-Lankan ties

Bandaranaike MemoriaI International Conference Hall cemented Sino-Lankan ties

May 28, 2023
Lankan President’s Japan visit will have a salutary effect on relationship

Lankan President’s Japan visit will have a salutary effect on relationship

May 28, 2023
  • About Us
  • Advertisements
  • Privacy Policy
  • Contact
Monday, May 29, 2023
No Result
View All Result
NewsIn.Asia
  • Home
  • Around South Asia
    • All
    • Afghanistan
    • Bangladesh
    • Bhutan
    • China
    • India
    • Maldives
    • Myanmar
    • Nepal
    • Pakistan
    • Sri Lanka
    Sri Lanka – Bangladesh Test Match live

    How much will Sri Lanka get from ICC for test championship?

    Exchange Rate

    Foreign Currency Official Exchange Rates from Central Bank of Sri Lanka

    New Congress government restoring communal balance in Karnataka

    New Congress government restoring communal balance in Karnataka

    Gold. Image credits - Jingming Pan / Unsplash

    Gold prices drop further in Sri Lanka

    India in global competition to woo Pacific islands

    India in global competition to woo Pacific islands

    Using an ancient scepter to win over Tamil Nadu

    Using an ancient scepter to win over Tamil Nadu

    Siddharamaiah: The new face of Karnataka

    Siddharamaiah: The new face of Karnataka

    Bandaranaike MemoriaI International Conference Hall cemented Sino-Lankan ties

    Bandaranaike MemoriaI International Conference Hall cemented Sino-Lankan ties

    Lankan President’s Japan visit will have a salutary effect on relationship

    Lankan President’s Japan visit will have a salutary effect on relationship

  • World
    • All
    • Japan
    • Russia
    • United Kingdom
    • United States
    Mars

    Mars bar plastic wrapper swapped for paper

    Recep Tayyip Erdogan

    Erdogan wins Turkish election, extending rule to third decade

    Lankan President’s Japan visit will have a salutary effect on relationship

    Lankan President’s Japan visit will have a salutary effect on relationship

    Joe Biden’s advisers say he doesn’t want to drag Pacific allies into ‘headlong clash’ between US and China

    Joe Biden’s advisers say he doesn’t want to drag Pacific allies into ‘headlong clash’ between US and China

    Cristiano Ronaldo

    Cristiano Ronaldo’s ‘Sajdah’ goal celebration goes viral

    US dollar notes

    ‘The mother of all crises.’ A US debt default would ricochet around the world

    Tsunami

    Scientists warn climate crisis could trigger giant tsunamis from Antarctica

    Emirates

    All Emirates passengers can now avail of free Wi-Fi connectivity onboard

    Ranil Wickremesinghe with Fumio Kishida

    President apologizes to Japanese Government over the termination of LRT project

  • Business
  • Politics
  • Sports
  • Entertainment
    • All
    • Books
    • Gaming
    • Movie
    • Music
    • Series
    Samahan

    Amitabh Bachchan expresses confidence for Sri Lankan herbal drink Samahan

    ‘Money Back Guarantee’ to mark cinematic debut of cricketing legend Wasim Akram and wife Shaniera

    ‘Money Back Guarantee’ to mark cinematic debut of cricketing legend Wasim Akram and wife Shaniera

    The gran who couldn’t: Indu Balachandran’s latest book is for readers of all ages

    The gran who couldn’t: Indu Balachandran’s latest book is for readers of all ages

    The Weeknd

    The Weeknd is the world’s most popular artist, Guinness World Records says

    Naatu Naatu has millions of views on YouTube and is a viral sensation over social media

    Watch: Oscar winning song Naatu Naatu

    Naatu Naatu has millions of views on YouTube and is a viral sensation over social media

    Indian song ‘Naatu Naatu’ from ‘RRR’ wins Oscar award for best song

    Naatu Naatu has millions of views on YouTube and is a viral sensation over social media

    Naatu Naatu: The RRR song primed for Oscar history

    Keanu Reeves

    11 of the best films to watch in March

    Netflix. Image credits - Souvik Banerjee @rswebsols / Unsplash

    Netflix cuts prices for subscribers in more than 30 countries

  • Lifestyle
    • All
    • Fashion
    • Food
    • Health
    • Science
    • Travel
    Mars

    Mars bar plastic wrapper swapped for paper

    Emirates

    All Emirates passengers can now avail of free Wi-Fi connectivity onboard

    Exercise. Image credits - Victor Freitas @victorfreitas / Unsplash

    5 healthy habits that are easy to add to your day

    Global concern over babies born too soon

    Global concern over babies born too soon

    Nigerian chef Hilda Effiong Bassey

    Nigerian chef cooks for 100 hours in world record attempt

    Batik Air

    Batik Air reinstates daily services between Colombo and Kuala Lumpur

    Confucius tells us how to set ourselves free with ritual

    Confucius tells us how to set ourselves free with ritual

    Sri Lankans enjoy a walk in the beach

    My trip to Sri Lanka restored faith in fellow humans: Australian tourist

    The flavours of Sri Lanka

    The flavours of Sri Lanka

    The Issue of same-sex marriage reaches a critical juncture in India

    The Issue of same-sex marriage reaches a critical juncture in India

    Trending Tags

    • Golden Globes
    • Mr. Robot
    • MotoGP 2017
    • Climate Change
    • Flat Earth
  • Tech
    Whatsapp

    WhatsApp introduces new feature to edit sent messages

    WhatsApp

    WhatsApp will allow users to lock and hide conversations

    Whatsapp. Image credits - AARN GIRI / Unsplash

    WhatsApp announces multi-device feature to support more than one phone

    Apple store in Mumbai

    Apple says ‘Hello Mumbai’ at first India store launch

    WhatsApp

    WhatsApp to introduce five new features in 2023 

    OpenAI has created ChatGPT, a start-up focused on artificial intelligence and its potential use cases. (Image source: OpenAI)

    ChatGPT banned in Italy over privacy concerns

    Trending Tags

    • Sillicon Valley
    • Climate Change
    • Election Results
    • Flat Earth
    • Golden Globes
    • MotoGP 2017
    • Mr. Robot
  • Coronavirus
  • Videos
  • Home
  • Around South Asia
    • All
    • Afghanistan
    • Bangladesh
    • Bhutan
    • China
    • India
    • Maldives
    • Myanmar
    • Nepal
    • Pakistan
    • Sri Lanka
    Sri Lanka – Bangladesh Test Match live

    How much will Sri Lanka get from ICC for test championship?

    Exchange Rate

    Foreign Currency Official Exchange Rates from Central Bank of Sri Lanka

    New Congress government restoring communal balance in Karnataka

    New Congress government restoring communal balance in Karnataka

    Gold. Image credits - Jingming Pan / Unsplash

    Gold prices drop further in Sri Lanka

    India in global competition to woo Pacific islands

    India in global competition to woo Pacific islands

    Using an ancient scepter to win over Tamil Nadu

    Using an ancient scepter to win over Tamil Nadu

    Siddharamaiah: The new face of Karnataka

    Siddharamaiah: The new face of Karnataka

    Bandaranaike MemoriaI International Conference Hall cemented Sino-Lankan ties

    Bandaranaike MemoriaI International Conference Hall cemented Sino-Lankan ties

    Lankan President’s Japan visit will have a salutary effect on relationship

    Lankan President’s Japan visit will have a salutary effect on relationship

  • World
    • All
    • Japan
    • Russia
    • United Kingdom
    • United States
    Mars

    Mars bar plastic wrapper swapped for paper

    Recep Tayyip Erdogan

    Erdogan wins Turkish election, extending rule to third decade

    Lankan President’s Japan visit will have a salutary effect on relationship

    Lankan President’s Japan visit will have a salutary effect on relationship

    Joe Biden’s advisers say he doesn’t want to drag Pacific allies into ‘headlong clash’ between US and China

    Joe Biden’s advisers say he doesn’t want to drag Pacific allies into ‘headlong clash’ between US and China

    Cristiano Ronaldo

    Cristiano Ronaldo’s ‘Sajdah’ goal celebration goes viral

    US dollar notes

    ‘The mother of all crises.’ A US debt default would ricochet around the world

    Tsunami

    Scientists warn climate crisis could trigger giant tsunamis from Antarctica

    Emirates

    All Emirates passengers can now avail of free Wi-Fi connectivity onboard

    Ranil Wickremesinghe with Fumio Kishida

    President apologizes to Japanese Government over the termination of LRT project

  • Business
  • Politics
  • Sports
  • Entertainment
    • All
    • Books
    • Gaming
    • Movie
    • Music
    • Series
    Samahan

    Amitabh Bachchan expresses confidence for Sri Lankan herbal drink Samahan

    ‘Money Back Guarantee’ to mark cinematic debut of cricketing legend Wasim Akram and wife Shaniera

    ‘Money Back Guarantee’ to mark cinematic debut of cricketing legend Wasim Akram and wife Shaniera

    The gran who couldn’t: Indu Balachandran’s latest book is for readers of all ages

    The gran who couldn’t: Indu Balachandran’s latest book is for readers of all ages

    The Weeknd

    The Weeknd is the world’s most popular artist, Guinness World Records says

    Naatu Naatu has millions of views on YouTube and is a viral sensation over social media

    Watch: Oscar winning song Naatu Naatu

    Naatu Naatu has millions of views on YouTube and is a viral sensation over social media

    Indian song ‘Naatu Naatu’ from ‘RRR’ wins Oscar award for best song

    Naatu Naatu has millions of views on YouTube and is a viral sensation over social media

    Naatu Naatu: The RRR song primed for Oscar history

    Keanu Reeves

    11 of the best films to watch in March

    Netflix. Image credits - Souvik Banerjee @rswebsols / Unsplash

    Netflix cuts prices for subscribers in more than 30 countries

  • Lifestyle
    • All
    • Fashion
    • Food
    • Health
    • Science
    • Travel
    Mars

    Mars bar plastic wrapper swapped for paper

    Emirates

    All Emirates passengers can now avail of free Wi-Fi connectivity onboard

    Exercise. Image credits - Victor Freitas @victorfreitas / Unsplash

    5 healthy habits that are easy to add to your day

    Global concern over babies born too soon

    Global concern over babies born too soon

    Nigerian chef Hilda Effiong Bassey

    Nigerian chef cooks for 100 hours in world record attempt

    Batik Air

    Batik Air reinstates daily services between Colombo and Kuala Lumpur

    Confucius tells us how to set ourselves free with ritual

    Confucius tells us how to set ourselves free with ritual

    Sri Lankans enjoy a walk in the beach

    My trip to Sri Lanka restored faith in fellow humans: Australian tourist

    The flavours of Sri Lanka

    The flavours of Sri Lanka

    The Issue of same-sex marriage reaches a critical juncture in India

    The Issue of same-sex marriage reaches a critical juncture in India

    Trending Tags

    • Golden Globes
    • Mr. Robot
    • MotoGP 2017
    • Climate Change
    • Flat Earth
  • Tech
    Whatsapp

    WhatsApp introduces new feature to edit sent messages

    WhatsApp

    WhatsApp will allow users to lock and hide conversations

    Whatsapp. Image credits - AARN GIRI / Unsplash

    WhatsApp announces multi-device feature to support more than one phone

    Apple store in Mumbai

    Apple says ‘Hello Mumbai’ at first India store launch

    WhatsApp

    WhatsApp to introduce five new features in 2023 

    OpenAI has created ChatGPT, a start-up focused on artificial intelligence and its potential use cases. (Image source: OpenAI)

    ChatGPT banned in Italy over privacy concerns

    Trending Tags

    • Sillicon Valley
    • Climate Change
    • Election Results
    • Flat Earth
    • Golden Globes
    • MotoGP 2017
    • Mr. Robot
  • Coronavirus
  • Videos
NewsIn.Asia
No Result
View All Result
Home Around South Asia

Three years into Modi government, economic outlook is still cloudy

Editor by Editor
July 17, 2017
in Around South Asia, Business, India, Top Story
Reading Time: 4 mins read
2 0
A A
Share on WhatsApp

By R.Jagannathan/Times of India

New Delhi, July 17 (Times of India): There is an important parallel in the challenges faced by Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s government two years before the General Election and Narendra Modi’s.  In both cases, growth has been sluggish, though formal growth numbers on Modi’s watch have been higher, possibly due to a change in the methodology of calculating the GDP.

In the Vajpayee era, growth was partly affected by a political decision he took in 1998 to conduct nuclear tests. This led to global sanctions and the economy bore the consequences.

ADVERTISEMENT

In Modi’s case, the growth retarding political moves involved lighting fires under tax evaders. He demonetized high value notes in November 2016, then pushed GST. We don’t know if tax evaders got singed, but the first measure slowed down an already slowing economy.

 

The jury is out on ongoing implementation of GST but there is little doubt it will be a huge disruption, with consequences for short term growth.

If we assume that the new tax regime will take most of the remaining nine months of fiscal 2017-18 to settle into a fine rhythm – and we are assuming it won’t create a blowout, either politically or economically – we are left with just one year before general elections are held in 2019.

The big question is whether growth can revive even in 2018-19. The bigger question is whether reviving growth in the last year of a government’s tenure will be enough to remind voters that ‘acche din’ are finally here.

That’s another parallel with the Vajpayee years. After struggling with growth from 1998 to 2003, growth took off vertically only in 2003-04, but voters didn’t start experiencing the gains at that point. As a result, the “India Shining” story didn’t sell.

Will the same happen for Modi, with the benefits of growth not being felt till it is too late for the voter to acknowledge it?

The Modi juggernaut has rolled across India largely on the political goodwill and brand power of the Prime Minister himself, with minor hiccups in 2015 when BJP lost Delhi and Bihar.

But the Vajpayee brand was as strong in 2004 as in 1998. That he stood head and shoulders above every other leader didn’t matter when the economy failed to take off for four years.

Will Modi’s charisma, which now looms larger than that of Vajpayee, succeed where Vajpayee’s failed?

There is always a close connection between a voter’s sense of whether her lot is improving and how she votes in general elections. The bad news for Modi and party chief Amit Shah is that there is little possibility of an economic pick-up before 2018-19, and even then one cannot be sure it will be visible to the average voter.

Here’s why the economic outlook looks cloudy even three years after Modi took over.

First, the NDA government’s political focus on going after black money has impacted growth. Two disclosure schemes, one for illegal foreign assets and another for domestic undisclosed incomes, have not yielded any great tax bonanza. Nor has demonetization.

Additionally, the government has closed tax loopholes by renegotiating treaties with Mauritius, Cyprus and Singapore. This has had the net effect of crimping clandestine black money flows. While this is ethically laudable, it has made economic revival slower.

The negative effects of the clampdown on black money are front-loaded, while the benefits, in the form of higher tax collections, will be back-loaded. The price of a high focus on black money is slower short term growth.

Second, Modi has changed between Gujarat and now. In his previous avatar as Chief Minister, he was happy to be seen with business and lauded for being business friendly. Not anymore. This is perhaps where Rahul Gandhi’s “suit boot ki sarkar” jibe has had an impact. It has had consequences for growth.

The government has been wary of reviving bank lending by quickly recapitalizing them after writing off unrecoverable loans, for fear of being seen as favoring big business. If around Rs 1 lakh crore had been provided for banks in the initial two years, by now bank lending would have been roaring, bringing back the animal spirits of India Inc. Instead, the government has opted for the longer term remedy of forcing the liquidation of bad businesses and seeking a slower resolution of bad loans, now in excess of Rs 7 lakh crore and set to rise even further in 2017-18.

Since the bulk of the recapitalization will need to be done this year, it means government will have less fiscal muscle to invest in infrastructure and social spending.

And if we assume that GST’s first year will involve compensating states for revenue losses, Arun Jaitley’s fiscal math is going to go for a toss. There will be very little headroom for a stimulus.

Third, while the central government itself will be standing firm on not announcing farm loan waivers the states are under no such restraint. Already UP, Punjab, Karnataka and Maharashtra have succumbed to pressure. Chhattisgarh has waived interest on farm loans, and in 2018 (another big election year) one can expect more bounties from MP and Rajasthan.

Put together, the Centre-state fiscal math is set to go out of control once more unless GST delivers an unexpected bonanza. This leaves little room for raising minimum support prices for farmers, making even a limited farm stimulus difficult in 2018-19.

It will need an economic miracle of sorts for the economy to be kicking in favor of a Modi wave in 2019. Growth is unlikely to revive early enough to give him a tailwind.

(The  featured image at the top is that of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi) 

 

Related Posts

Sri Lanka – Bangladesh Test Match live
Around South Asia

How much will Sri Lanka get from ICC for test championship?

May 29, 2023
Exchange Rate
Around South Asia

Foreign Currency Official Exchange Rates from Central Bank of Sri Lanka

May 29, 2023
New Congress government restoring communal balance in Karnataka
Communities

New Congress government restoring communal balance in Karnataka

May 29, 2023
Gold. Image credits - Jingming Pan / Unsplash
Around South Asia

Gold prices drop further in Sri Lanka

May 29, 2023
India in global competition to woo Pacific islands
China

India in global competition to woo Pacific islands

May 29, 2023
Factum Perspective: Thai elections – A challenge to the military
Around The World

Factum Perspective: Thai elections – A challenge to the military

May 28, 2023
  • Electricity

    Power cut schedule for today in Sri Lanka: Uninterrupted power supply

    60240 shares
    Share 24118 Tweet 15051
  • Registration open for National Fuel Pass

    6641 shares
    Share 2694 Tweet 1645
  • Foreign Currency Official Exchange Rates from Central Bank of Sri Lanka

    1849 shares
    Share 746 Tweet 460
  • WATCH : Yohani’s first live performance in India

    790 shares
    Share 329 Tweet 192
  • Power interruption schedule released: Check your area power cut time

    742 shares
    Share 320 Tweet 176
  • About Us
  • Advertisements
  • Privacy Policy
  • Contact

© 2022 All rights reserved.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Around South Asia
    • Afghanistan
    • Bangladesh
    • Bhutan
    • China
    • India
    • Maldives
    • Myanmar
    • Nepal
    • Pakistan
    • Sri Lanka
  • Around The World
  • Breaking News
  • Business
    • Exchange
  • Climate Change
  • Governance
    • Crime
    • Diplomacy
    • Defense
    • Human Rights
    • Politics
    • Strategic Affairs
  • Lifestyle
    • Books
    • Entertainment
      • Arts
      • Cinema
      • Gaming
      • Music
      • Movie
      • Series
      • TV
    • Health
    • Fashion
    • Food
    • Travel
  • Culture
    • Ethnicity
    • Gender
  • Development news
  • Economy
  • Education
  • Environment
  • Coronavirus
  • History
  • National
  • Offbeat
    • Media
    • Music and arts across South Asia
  • Recommended
    • Headlines
    • Highlights
    • Top Picture
    • Top Story
  • Religion
  • Science
  • Sports
    • Football
    • Cricket
      • LPL
      • IPL
    • Tennis
    • Formula 1
    • NBA
  • Tech
    • Instagram
  • United Nations
  • Weather
  • World
    • Japan
    • Russia
    • United States
  • Videos

© 2022 All rights reserved.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In

Add New Playlist

eskisehir escort -

https://www.vudols.com/

- Sağlık Personeli - mersin escort - Antalya korsan taksi -
ip booter