- Washington, November 9 (The Washington Post): Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump has won his so-called “must-win” states of Ohio, Florida and North Carolina.
- The big news: Trump is legitimately making a play for two blue-leaning states that seemed beyond his reach just a week ago but where he invested some time in the final week —Michigan and Wisconsin. These are states that have long eluded the GOP’s grasp and didn’t seem likely to be winnable for Trump. He is up 3 points in Wisconsin and 2 points in Michigan with more than half of precincts reporting.
- Another blue-leaning state, Pennsylvania is favoring Clinton by 2 points with 80-plus percent of the vote in. But Trump has been closing that margin and could continue to do so. And if Michigan and Wisconsin are in-play, it’s likely Pennsylvania is too.
- It’s very early out west in Nevada, but given the above, projections that Clinton wasa significant favorite there based on early voting have to be called into question.
- Give all of this, it’s time to reassess the idea, which we have espoused early and often, that Trump’s path to victory is narrow. It’s not.
- It was looking like he had to win Florida,Ohio and probably both Pennsylvania and North Carolina. That’s no longer the case.
- With victories in Florida, Ohio and North Carolina — and the possible additions of Michigan and Wisconsin and their 26 electoral votes to the map — Trump’s paths are literally multiplied. To be clear: It’s not that he’s necessarily favored in either state. But he could win just one and likely be the next president.
- This morning, we looked atfour possible Trump paths to victory, with each of them going through Florida and Ohio at a minimum. Giving Trump Michigan or Wisconsin was the least likely of the four outcomes, and we assumed only one of them might flip.
- But if you gave Trump either Michigan or Wisconsin, getting to 270 wasmuch He didn’tneedto win Pennsylvania anymore. He just had to add Florida, Ohio, North Carolina (all three of which are now won) and Iowa and Michigan to win. If he took Wisconsin rather than Michigan, he’d need to add either Nevada or New Hampshire to get over the top, but that’s doable.
- Importantly, all of this assumes that Trump doesn’t lose either Arizona or Utah out west. We don’t know what’ll happen in either state, but Trump’s strength elsewhere suggests he would be favored in both.
- Here’s the Wisconsin map:Florida + Ohio + North Carolina + Iowa + Wisconsin + New Hampshire = 273 electoral votes
